Thursday started with a beautiful sunrise but the clouds quickly painted the burnt orange sky over with shades of gray. This afternoon rain showers approach the region with soaking rain at times which will cause area creeks to rise.
We will get some periods of dry time this evening before another round arrives near midnight potentially with a few rumbles of thunder. Rain showers continue overnight and through the day on Friday.
Various weather models are predicting between an inch to just under two inches of rain through Saturday morning. Although it looks like creeks will remain below flood stage we'll keep a close eye on the ones in Erie, Wyoming, Niagara and Orleans counties in case we see amounts increase through Saturday.
Here is a current look at several creeks:
Cayuga Creek at Lancaster Thursday morning with a forecasted crest Friday morning/afternoon:
Buffalo Creek at Gardenville Thursday morning with a forecasted crest Friday morning/afternoon:
Cazenovia Creek at Ebenezer Thursday morning with a forecasted crest Friday afternoon/evening:
As you can see in this diagram of the RPM model, less significant amounts are likely across the S.Tier. Anywhere from a half inch to .8", this should leave creeks and streams in Chautauqua, Cattaraugus, Allegany and Potter and McKean counties in Pennsylvania well below flood stage.
Buffalo to Batavia to Rochester pick up the highest totals from an inch to 1.8" of rain which will cause area creeks to rise but likely remain below action stage.
The NAM model below shows WNY divided in the same way but with lesser amounts across the S.Tier/norther PA and higher amounts from Erie county to Niagara and Orleans counties.