BUFFALO, N.Y. (WKBW) — Buckle up everyone; the NHL offseason has arrived. Buffalo Sabres General Manager Jarmo Kekäläinen already made his first move of the offseason, trading Michael Kesselring and the 27th overall pick to the San Jose Sharks for the 20th overall pick. But we’re taking over from here. Much love to PuckPedia.com for their PuckGM function. As always, stick taps to AFP Analytics for their incredible contract projections.
RESTRICTED FREE AGENCY:
We’ll start with a new contract for restricted free agent Zach Benson.
Benson, 7-year extension worth $6.97 million per year
According to AFP, Benson’s long-term projection is $6.97 million per year on a seven-year deal. So that’s exactly what he’s getting. While a bridge contract may be tempting because of the Sabres tricky salary cap situation this season, I think locking up Benson long-term is vital. His play in the playoffs was so impressive, and for a player who just turned 21 years old, the offensive production is only going to get better.
Josh Doan signed a similar extension in January, and that feels like a good measuring stick. Benson may end up getting a bit more because of his age and playoff production, but I think the two deals would be in the same ballpark.
TRADES:
Now let’s get to the trades. I made four deals in total, with two “big” trades and two “small” trades.
Buffalo trades Jordan Greenway to Chicago for a fourth-round pick.
This one is pretty simple. Greenway is a solid bottom-six player but makes too much money. Chicago has a ton of cap space and adds a proven contributor while Buffalo clears valuable cap space.
Buffalo trades Devon Levi to Edmonton for a third-round pick.
After the Sabres added Colten Ellis last season, it felt like the writing was on the wall for Devon Levi. The Oilers are perpetually looking for a goalie, and in this deal, they take a swing on a player that still has some upside.
Buffalo trades Bowen Byram, Ryan McLeod, Peyton Krebs, and a 2027 third-round pick to the Toronto Maple Leafs for Matthew Knies and Brandon Carlo.
There’s a lot to unpack here. So let’s start with Byram and the decision (by me) to move him. Where there’s smoke, there’s fire, and it feels like Byram is truly available. The biggest clue to this was the Sabres trying to add Colton Parayko at the trade deadline. That was never a move to add a player just for a playoff push. That was a move to add another top-four defenseman so the Sabres could eventually move on from someone else. And quite frankly, it’s not going to be Rasmus Dahlin, Mattias Samuelsson, or Owen Power. So that brings us to Byram. If he wants to be a top-pair guy or get paid like one, the Sabres may be better off using him to add someone else.
In comes Matthew Knies, a player who I’m a big fan of. I don’t exactly understand why his name is included on so many trade boards and lists, but like with Byram, there’s a reason. He would immediately come in and be one of the Sabres' top six forwards, and he’s still only 24-years-old with a favorable contract. Knies' contract makes him more valuable than Byram, so the Sabres would need to sweeten the deal. I included McLeod and Krebs for this reason. Both players are guys I’d imagine the Sabres want to keep in Buffalo, but to get you have to give. The proposed deal also includes Brandon Carlo, who has one year left on his current deal. I think he’s a solid third-pair defender who could work well with Zach Metsa or Connor Timmins.
I truly believe the Sabres WANT to keep Byram, but if they know he’s not going to sign an extension, they cannot let him walk next summer in free agency for nothing.
Buffalo trades the 20th overall pick (EDM via SJ) and Brodie Ziemer to the New York Rangers for Vincent Trocheck.
With McLeod included in the Byram/Knies deal, the Sabres could use a solid two-way center to fill out their lineup. Trocheck seems to check those boxes. I don’t love Trocheck’s game nearly as much as I did when he was younger, BUT he’s still a good player and would give the Sabres a chess piece to move up and down the lineup. Trocheck is a strong penalty killer, has more offensive upside than McLeod, and would provide some veteran leadership to an otherwise really young group of forwards. With the Sabres moving up seven spots because of the Kesselring deal, I don’t think they’d need to add too much to a deal to get Trocheck, but Ziemer is a name that would make sense.
Here are the trades in full:
Free Agency:
With these deals, the Sabres will enter free agency with about $5 million in salary cap space. That’s clearly not going to be enough to sign Alex Tuch, but at this point, it feels like the writing is on the wall.
I do, however, have them adding one player in free agency.
Connor Murphy, two years, $4 million per season
The veteran defenseman logged 21 minutes per night in the playoffs this year, playing alongside Darnell Nurse. He’s a steady player who I think could step in as the Sabres' fourth defenseman and play alongside Owen Power. He won’t provide the offensive upside Byram did, but he’s still a solid player, and this contract (along with Carlo) will give Radim Mrtka a clear path into the lineup in the next year or two.
So here's what the lineup looks like after all these moves:
Final thoughts:
You’ll notice I didn’t move Helenius, Östlund, Kulich, or Mrtka. This was intentional. I feel like the Sabres have built a really strong core of young prospects, and they need to give these guys a chance to earn playing time. But unlike in years past, this lineup won’t force the Sabres to rely on any of these players. This exercise is a blend of what I think the Sabres will do and what I think they should do. Jarmo Kekäläinen’s history shows us he’s going to be aggressive, and for the Sabres, now is not the time to sit on their laurels.
