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Seeding? First round opponent? Here are the latest scenarios and numbers ahead of week 17

Stefon Diggs
Posted at 12:23 AM, Dec 29, 2020

BUFFALO, NY (WKBW) — The Buffalo Bills needed a win Monday night to get back into the no. 2 spot in the AFC playoff picture, and they did just that.

With a 38-9 win over the New England Patriots the Bills improved to 12-3 on the season and because of their win over the Pittsburgh Steelers, own the tiebreaker to secure that higher seed between the two.

Entering the final week of the regular season, the Bills can finish no lower than the no. 3 seed. A win over Miami would secure the no. 2 seed, plain and simple. They can also clinch the no. 2 seed even if they lose, coupled with a Pittsburgh loss. A loss to Miami and a win by the Pittsburgh Steelers would drop the Bills to the no. 3 seed.

Here are the latest AFC playoff standings:

  1. z- Kansas City (14-1)
  2. z- Buffalo (12-3) *own tiebreaker over PIT
  3. z- Pittsburgh (12-3)
  4. Tennessee (10-5) *own tiebreaker over IND
  5. Miami (10-5)
  6. Baltimore (10-5)
  7. Cleveland (10-5)
  8. Indianapolis (10-5)

*z = clinched division title

So who could they play? Well there are 32 different scenarios that could play out in week 17 and their opponent could be any one of the teams in the 4-8 positions above. Below is a breakdown of the playoff scenarios put out by @YardsPerPass on Twitter.

If you don't want to do the math, here are the possible scenarios for 1st round opponents depending on what happens in week 17:

If the Bills beat Miami in week 17

  • 37.5% chance of playing Miami
  • 25% chance of playing Baltimore
  • 25% chance of playing Cleveland
  • 6.25% chance of playing Tennessee
  • 6.25% chance of playing Indianapolis

If the Bills lose to Miami in week 17

  • 50% chance of playing Baltimore
  • 25% chance of playing Cleveland
  • 12.5% chance of playing Tennessee
  • 12.5% chance of playing Indianapolis
  • 0% chance of playing Miami

The Bills and Dolphins play at 1pm on Sunday, January 3rd so the Bills will have a clearer picture as to their first round opponent and seeding once that game is complete.

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