Your Fall 2017 outlook: Can we expect to stay snow free?

Posted at 4:31 PM, Sep 18, 2017
and last updated 2017-09-18 17:56:50-04

September is feeling mighty warm especially compared to the beginning of the month when the Buffalo Airport averaged nearly six degrees below normal.  As of last check we're now under two degrees below average, but we're not staying there. A ridge of high-pressure along the East Coast will not budge through the middle of next week.  This will likely take September above average until end the month. 


That's not to say we won't have a couple of colder spells. The last few days of September could finish a bit cooler. And then comes October. While bigger chunks may see some cooler temperatures, we'll end up above average toward the end of the month, bringing October a bit above average in the temperature department. 


November seems to look on par to normal with only a slight edge above average.  In general, averaging the three months together we won't have much change from normal.  Many models put them in about a +.5 degree uptick.  As for precipitation, October looks a bit drier, where November could see a little more than average, around a 1/2 inch or so of additional precipitation.   This area is not as certain because models are tending to push back and forth between drier and wetter and sometimes sticking right at average. 


Overall, the fall season looks to be close to normal with plenty of mild spells.  We won't be smashing records like 2016 when September and October finished second warmest on record and November ended up in the top ten (9th warmest on record) but if we can keep winter away until the season approaches I don't think many people will care if we break any records at all.