A Lake Effect Snow Warning begins at 6 a.m. Thursday morning, but that's not necessarily when the snow will begin. Here's our most current timeline for this snow event:
Wednesday night: The first band of lake effect snow will develop across the city and Southtowns.
Thursday morning commute: The good news: Dry air will limit a lot of the lake effect snowfall during the overnight and morning hours. However, this doesn't mean that this will not affect your commute to work Thursday morning.
Thursday late morning: While snow starts out in the Southtowns, the band will shift towards ski country during the morning and afternoon. Multiple bands will likely develop during the later morning hours, one over the deep Southtowns (from about Hamburg on south) and one over Chautauqua and Cattaraugus County.
Once colder air moves through the area this afternoon, the band will become better developed, producing snowfall rates up to 2-3" per hour in some of the heaviest bands of snowfall.
Thursday afternoon commute: The band of snow will leave Southtowns by late Thursday afternoon/ early evening and stay in the Southern Tier and ski country through Friday. However, we can expect a few streamers off of Huron, that will bring the area a few more snow showers.
Possible Snow Totals
Chautauqua Ridge right around Sinclairville and Mayville will see the most snow, upwards of 1-2 FT with higher localized amounts. Ellicottville will see substantial snowfall as well, but likely not as much as it's neighbors to the west in Chautauqua.
Genesee and Orleans County will see a band of Lake Effect Snow off of Ontario and Huron develop late Thursday and Friday. Expect around 3-5" of snow for you folks. The further east you are, the more snow you have to shovel.
As for Northern Erie and Niagara County, you will escape much of the snowfall unlike your friends in the Southern Tier. However, this doesn't mean you're out of the woods with snow, as there will be a few opportunities for nature to swing snowfall in your general direction.
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