BUFFALO, N.Y. (WKBW) — As of March 24 our average temperature for the month of March is 39.3 degrees. That puts us at 6.6 degrees above average. It's been a mild March and the long range outlook calls for temperatures to stay above normal through June and most likely through the entire summer.
Interestingly our temperatures have been well above normal but we still would not be in the top ten warmest March's.
The main factor in forecasting long term temperatures will continue to be the influence of El Nino/Southern Oscillation. El Nino has been neutral and the forecast continues for it to stay neutral for the next several months. This neutral El Nino trend gives me confidence in forecasting an above normal temperature outlook through June.
Another factor in play is the below normal snow totals and snow depth for Western New York and the Northeast. The lack of snow this winter will lead to above normal temperatures for April, May and June.
A number of factors and variable are used to make a long range forecast. Taking into account the strong long term positive trends for 2020, and there is nothing in the global weather pattern that looks like this will change.