Weather

Autumn's Forecast: Record-warm Lake Erie meets a November cooldown in Buffalo

Unsettled weather continues into the weekend
7 Weather Forecast, PM, Thursday, November 5
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BUFFALO, N.Y. (WKBW) —

Back to November this weekend

After record warmth this week, Western New York is quickly heading back to November reality, but the air temperature isn’t the only number standing out.

Lake Erie is sitting at 60 degrees, the warmest the lake has ever been this late in November. The 60-degree water temperature also sets a new record for November 5, surpassing the previous record of 58 degrees.

That unusually warm lake will come into play as colder air moves across the region.

Light rain showers are expected Friday morning. As temperatures drop later in the day, some lake response will develop into Friday evening, keeping showers around parts of Western New York.

Cool and unsettled Saturday

A slow-moving area of low pressure will cross the Lower Great Lakes, bringing off-and-on rain showers into Saturday.

Highs will struggle near 50 degrees, a dramatic turnaround after temperatures approached 80 just a few days earlier. Gusty winds will add to the November chill.

There will be some dry breaks mixed in, but Saturday overall looks cool and unsettled.

Some improvement Sunday

The low-pressure system will eventually sink southeast of Western New York, taking much of the moisture with it and allowing conditions to gradually improve.

Temperatures rebound slightly to more seasonable levels Sunday, with highs in the lower 50s. A gusty breeze will stick around, but the trend will be toward drier weather.

Bottom line: From a record-warm Lake Erie to a much cooler atmosphere overhead, Western New York is in for a noticeable change. Showers and chilly temperatures take us through Friday and Saturday before drier, more seasonable weather begins to return Sunday.

FRIDAY
MORNING: Showers near 50.
AFTERNOON: Showers, mid 50s.

SATURDAY
MORNING: Showers, near 40.
AFTERNOON: Showers, low 50s.

SUNDAY
MORNING: Mostly cloudy , near 40.
AFTERNOON: Partly sunny, breezy mid 50s