(WKBW) — In two weeks, the guessing game that is the 2019 NFL Draft will subside for the event itself. Until that time, however, rumors will continue to fly as teams angle to get the players they hope will alter the future of their franchise.
In the third installment of this year's mock drafts, the Buffalo Bills took advantage of a sliding Quinnen Williams to move up the board and secure his services. This time around, the Bills aren't as lucky to land one of the best players in the draft.
On to mock draft number four:
1) - QB Kyler Murray, Oklahoma
- Haven't changed this yet, and I'll keep it there for now. Despite a down season with a bad team, you can't write off Josh Rosen and his prospects for the future. If they trade him, they're getting a first-round pick for a much lower cost. Any team in need of a long-term plan at quarterback should be considering it.
2) - EDGE Nick Bosa, Ohio State
- Still don't love the fit, but if you can't move down then you need to observe the value and take the most talented player on the board at a position of need.
3) - DT Quinnen Williams, Alabama
- A switch from last week, with the Jets looking at the depth at defensive tackle and not feeling as strongly about it as what they may find down the line at edge rusher.
4) - EDGE Josh Allen, Kentucky
- The Raiders could use either an edge rusher or a defensive tackle, so this is a win-win situation for them as long as Kyler Murray goes first overall.
5) - DT Ed Oliver, Houston
- With the future of Gerald McCoy up in the air, Ed Oliver and his uncanny ability of getting in the backfield must be a consideration as their three-technique defensive tackle of the future. The more that time passes, the more it seems unlikely that Oliver will be on the board past the first seven picks.
6) - EDGE Montez Sweat, Ole Miss
- The tone from beat reporters that cover the Giants is that the initial selection in the first round might wind up passing on quarterback, and after trading away Olivier Vernon, taking the best pass rusher on the board seems like a pretty solid bet.
7) **TRADE (from JAX) - QB Dwayne Haskins, Ohio State
- Unwilling to see if they can wait any longer, Washington decides to make the move with a willing trade partner in Jacksonville to secure their quarterback in Dwayne Haskins.
Trade Details: Washington receives 7th overall, 178th overall. Jacksonville receives 15th overall, 46th overall, 76th overall.
8) **TRADE (from DET) - QB Drew Lock, Missouri
- This is surely the out of left field trade, but the Chargers are on the final year of their contract with Philip Rivers. Even if he decides to come back for his age-38 season in 2020, the succession plan has been long overdue. They make a calculated risk to give up next year's first-round selection while believing that they're going to compete for a Super Bowl out of the AFC in perhaps their final year with Rivers, while realizing that they need someone waiting in the wings to compete with Kansas City and Patrick Mahomes for the forseeable future. And in the meantime, they can help Drew Lock grow with not one, but two quarterbacks that have a vast amount of starting experience in both Rivers and primary backup Tyrod Taylor. This is a phenomenal situation for Lock to walk into. For Detroit, this is an easy 'yes.' Getting a first-round pick for next season and an additional Day Two selection is too good to pass up.
Trade Details: Los Angeles Chargers receive 8th overall, 111th overall, 224th overall. Detroit receives 28th overall, 60th overall, 166th overall, 2020 1st round pick.
9) **TRADE (from BUF) - LB Devin White, LSU
Why the Bills trade out from 9:
- The Bills move out of this spot for several reasons. The first reason, the three primary targets along the defensive line have all come off the board in Quinnen Williams, Ed Oliver, and Montez Sweat. Second, they know by moving down only two spots they will still be able to secure either the top offensive tackle available in their eyes, or the top tight end on the board. Third, Bills GM Brandon Beane is finally in the position -- with a young quarterback already on the roster -- to take advantage of the board when the opportunity presents itself. It does here with Cincinnati, a team that needs an impact linebacker, that sees extreme value in Devin White lasting to 9th overall, and are of the full belief that he won't be there by the time 11th overall rolls around. Plus, the Bills don't need a linebacker like White, considering they have Matt Milano on the roster. So, Beane improves his lower 5th round pick to add an additional fourth-round pick -- giving him picks 110, 112, and 131 to kick off Day Three, and he also ropes in an extra Day Two selection for 2020. Those fourth-round picks can also be packaged together to get back into the third round if they feel strongly enough about a player, as well. If you're wondering about the math on the trade value chart, the Bills would be giving up 1,377.8 points. Cincinnati would also give up exactly 1,378 points as the value of the future pick is usually the median value of one round lower of the actual pick. In this case, Cincinnati's 3rd round pick has a mid-4th value, which is the equivalent of 54 points. The Bengals get their guy, and keep the majority of their 2019 draft in tact. Win-win-win trade.
Trade Details: Cincinnati receives 9th overall, 158th overall. Buffalo receives 11th overall, 110th overall, 2020 3rd round pick.
10) - TE TJ Hockenson, Iowa
- Hoping for Devin White to slide, the Broncos instead get an impact tight end that they hope will help resurrect Joe Flacco's career. Flacco loves his tight ends, as history indicates.
11) (from CIN) - OT Andre Dillard, Washington State
- After the trio of Williams, Oliver, and Sweat all went off the board, the Bills found themselves in a 'tweener selection at 9th overall. The remainder of the edge and three-technique tackle prospects don't quite measure up to this high of a pick and against other players, even though they would like to address both of those spots in the draft. Rather than talking themselves into one of those players, they select what they hope will be Josh Allen's best friend on the blindside for years to come. Andre Dillard is my top-ranked offensive line prospect in the draft and he has the potential to become a top flight left tackle in the NFL with how well he moves. Dillard usually looks poised, in control, patient, and has the size, length, and athleticism to deal with any kind of pass rush that he faces. He needs more seasoning in the run game, but this isn't a run-first team anymore. It's a franchise with a rocket-armed quarterback that isn't afraid to give him the time to make a play, and now he needs to blockers in front of him to give him those opportunities. Dillard's presence likely means the Bills have to figure out if Dion Dawkins can play either right tackle or inside at guard, and if he can't, try to trade him while he still has value. I'd like to see them try him at guard because I believe he could flourish there, but it's all dependent on what new offensive line coach Bobby Johnson wants. Ty Nsekhe's presence and starting-caliber contract also provides fuel to a potential move inside for Dawkins.
12) - WR Hollywood Brown, Oklahoma
13) **TRADE (from MIA) - OT Jawaan Taylor, Florida
- Minnesota doesn't wait any longer and flies up the board for Jawaan Taylor, giving Miami precisely what they want for their tank -- a substantial selection in the 2020 NFL Draft.
Trade Details: Minnesota receives 13th overall. Miami receives 18th overall, 2020 2nd round pick.
14) - DL Rashan Gary, Michigan
15) (from WAS) - TE Noah Fant, Iowa
16) - EDGE Brian Burns, Florida State
- I love this pairing and value for the Panthers. They need an infusion of youth at edge rusher, and Burns could wind up being one of the best from the draft if he keeps developing.
17) (from CLE) - QB Daniel Jones, Duke
18) (from MIN) - C Garrett Bradbury, NC State
- Miami moves down, gets a second-round pick next year, and puts a young starting center in place to figure it out ahead of the arrival of their soon-to-be rookie quarterback in the 2020 season.
19) - CB Greedy Williams, LSU
20) - LB Devin Bush, Michigan
21) - T/G Jonah Williams, Alabama
22) - G Cody Ford, Oklahoma
23) - OT Kaleb McGary, Washington
24) (from CHI) - DT Christian Wilkins, Clemson
25) - G Chris Lindstrom, Boston College
26) **TRADE (from IND) - CB Deandre Baker, Georgia
- The Buccaneers weren't in a position to add to their secondary at fifth overall, so they move up the board to secure the player many consider the top cornerback available this year.
Trade Details: Indianapolis receives 39th overall, 70th overall. Tampa Bay receives 26th overall, 129th overall.
27) (from DAL) - RB Josh Jacobs, Alabama
28) (from LAC) - EDGE Clelin Ferrell, Clemson
29) - EDGE Chase Winovich, Michigan
30) (from NO) - TE Irv Smith, Jr., Alabama
- The Packers vastly improve the situation around Aaron Rodgers and Davante Adams, by adding an explosive slot receiver at 12 in Hollywood Brown and smaller, yet do-it-all type of tight end in Irv Smith, Jr. Guard can wait.
31) - DE LJ Collier, TCU
32) - WR DK Metcalf, Ole Miss
- If anyone can figure out how to make DK Metcalf into a consistent force, it's Tom Brady, Bill Belichick, and Josh McDaniels. This is a fascinating pairing.
33) - CB Byron Murphy, Washington
34) (from NYJ) - WR Hakeem Butler, Iowa State
35) **TRADE (from OAK) - WR AJ Brown, Ole Miss
- With the run on pass rushers of all kind having already occurred, the top three tight ends off the board, and wide receivers hanging around due to the depth of the class, the Bills use one of the their fourth-round selections to move up ahead of both San Francisco and Jacksonville -- two wide receiver needy teams -- and find tremendous value in Ole Miss wide receiver AJ Brown atop round two. Even though there are four players already on the roster in John Brown, Cole Beasley, Zay Jones, and Robert Foster that hope to factor into the offense this year, Brown is one of two or three second-round receivers that are too good to pass up in these situations. Brown has the versatility as a receiver that Brian Daboll covets by having loads of experience as both a slot receiver and on the boundary. Brown's superior footwork, route running, and reading of the defender gives him an edge against his defenders -- but where he stands out from the rest is his ability to collect yards after the catch. He's physical and can win the contested catch despite his size, he shows effortless hands in non-contested situations, and he can block extremely well, too. He's not the type that will kill teams with his long speed on a fly route. However, he can dominate the middle of the field and the vast majority of the route tree, and in turn, I believe he has number-one receiver potential. The Bills have the ability to get out from Brown and Beasley's contract after one year, so it's not as though this is a group that's muddled forever. You take an extreme talent in Brown, and figure the rest out.
Trade Details: Buffalo receives 35th overall. Oakland receives 40th overall, 110th overall.
36) - S Chauncey Gardner-Johnson, Florida
37) - DT Dexter Lawrence, Clemson
38) - G Nate Davis, Charlotte
39) (from TB) - DT Jeffery Simmons, Mississippi State
40) (from BUF) - CB Rock Ya-Sin, Temple
41) - IOL Erik McCoy, Texas A&M
42) T/G Dalton Risner, Kansas State
- The Bengals gave a new contract to Bobby Hart and signed John Miller, though Hart's deal can be exited after 2019 if they so choose. Plus, the Bengals can also release Cordy Glenn without facing any dead money ahead of 2020, so finding a long-term tackle isn't out of question here.
43) - LB Mack Wilson, Alabama
44) - G Connor McGovern, Penn State
45) - DT Jerry Tillery, Notre Dame
46) (from WAS) - WR N'Keal Harry, Arizona State
47) - S Jonathan Abram, Mississippi State
48) - T Greg Little, Ole Miss
49) - CB Amani Oruwariye, Penn State
50) - DT Dre'mont Jones, Ohio State
51) - EDGE D'Andre Walker, Georgia
52) - WR Parris Campbell, Ohio State
53) (from BAL) - LB Jahlani Tavai, Hawai'i
54) (from SEA) - OT Tytus Howard, Alabama State
55) - CB Justin Layne, Michigan State
56) (from CHI) - S Nasir Adderley, Delaware
57) - RB Miles Sanders, Penn State
58) - S Darnell Savage, Maryland
59) - EDGE Jaylon Ferguson, Louisiana Tech
60) (from LAC) - TE Dawson Knox, Ole Miss
61) - CB Julian Love, Notre Dame
62) - WR Deebo Samuel, South Carolina
63) (from LAR) - DE/DT Trysten Hill, Central Florida
64) - DE Zach Allen, Boston College
65) - S Taylor Rapp, Washington
66) (from OAK) - EDGE Christian Miller, Alabama
67) - CB Joejuan Williams, Vanderbilt
68) - C Elgton Jenkins, Mississippi State
69) - QB Will Grier, West Virginia
70) (from TB) - CB Trayvon Mullen, Clemson
forfeited pick, used in 2018 NFL Supplemental Draft
71) - WR Emanuel Hall, Missouri
72) - DL Charles Omenihu, Texas
73) (from DET) - TE Kahale Warring, San Diego State
74) - DT Renell Wren, Arizona State
- Starting in the third round, this is the time of the draft where you start taking some calculated risks on traits to develop and outperform the draft slot with the player you select. It's not for every team, but Bills GM Brandon Beane has shown a willingness to believe in measurables and traits -- and in Renell Wren, they would be getting a three-technique to mold with the explosiveness, size, and length that they covet, but who needs refinement as a pass rusher because he didn't get enough reps in that role in college -- mainly serving as the nose tackle by many accounts. For that reason, Wren lacks the tackles for loss and sack production one might expect out of a prospect that will be filling the three-technique role. However, there is a lot to work with -- an essential ball of clay for a group of defensive coaches that have shown the ability to develop potential players like this over their careers. If the defensive line coach Bill Teerlinck, along with head coach Sean McDermott, helps to unlock his potential he could develop into McDermott's Kawann Short -- a house-wrecking interior penetrator on a cheap rookie deal. This is a potential high-upside pick, but one that could also be a swing and a miss, which isn't the type of prospect for everyone. Both Beane and McDermott were in attendance at Wren's pro day, for what it's worth. After missing out on Williams and Oliver in the first round, and then being out of range to take advantage of value in round two, finding a potential impact starter -- with heavy emphasis on the word 'potential' -- is a great find in the third round. It would likely mean Jordan Phillips is the starter for the season as Wren develops the nuances of the position, which could pave the way for a bigger contract in free agency for Phillips -- which in turn, would mean a potential compensatory selection for the 2021 NFL Draft for the Bills.