As many workers say they are worried artificial intelligence might replace them, so far AI has failed to cause any substantive changes to the workforce, according to a new report from Yale’s Budget Lab.
The report notes changes in the types of jobs people hold, but says some of these shifts can be explained by workers changing positions or reentering the workforce from unemployment.
"Our metrics indicate that the broader labor market has not experienced a discernible disruption since ChatGPT’s release 33 months ago, undercutting fears that AI automation is currently eroding the demand for cognitive labor across the economy," the report says.
The disruption AI has caused to the workforce is similar to other technological shifts, such as the advent of the Internet in the 1990s or the rise of personal computing in the 1980s, the report adds.
RELATED STORY | ChatGPT launches parental control features for teen users
The findings come as polls show workers expressing concern that their jobs could be replaced by AI. Separate surveys also show some employers plan to use AI to replace certain roles.
A recent survey by Resume.org found that four in 10 employers plan to replace part of their workforce with AI by 2026. Such impacts could be felt across industries.
“High-salary roles are often targeted first because companies see immediate savings in payroll, and employees lacking AI-related skills are vulnerable because organizations are accelerating automation,” said Kara Dennison, head of career advising at Resume.org. “Recent hires and entry-level employees are also at risk because they haven’t built deep institutional knowledge or proven long-term value."
An August Reuters poll found that 71% of Americans fear permanent job loss due to AI.
RELATED STORY | Children are asking AI for advice on sex and mental health, new report finds
But the Yale Budget Lab says these polls may not reflect reality.
"While this finding may contradict the most alarming headlines, it is not surprising given past precedents. Historically, widespread technological disruption in workplaces tends to occur over decades, rather than months or years," the report says. "Computers didn’t become commonplace in offices until nearly a decade after their release to the public, and it took even longer for them to transform office workflows. Even if new AI technologies will go on to impact the labor market as much, or more, dramatically, it is reasonable to expect that widespread effects will take longer than 33 months to materialize."
