BUFFALO, N.Y. (WKBW) — With less than six weeks until Election Day, two new polls released Wednesday offer significantly different snapshots of the race for governor of New York.
A Siena Research Institute poll puts Democratic Gov. Kathy Hochul ahead of Republican challenger Bruce Blakeman 50%-41% among likely voters.
But a separate Quinnipiac University poll conducted around the same time gives Hochul a 58%-39% lead.
That's a 10-point difference in the size of Hochul's lead, though both surveys show her ahead.
Siena: A closer race
Siena's findings show a single-digit race. The nine-point gap is similar to Siena's August poll, when Hochul led Blakeman 49%-39%.
Siena pollster Steve Greenberg told 7 News there are reasons for both campaigns to highlight the numbers.
"(Hochul) hit that magic 50 number which she had not hit among likely voters before," Greenberg said.
But he also pointed to the fact that Blakeman's deficit is substantially smaller than the one Siena found at a similar point in the 2022 campaign.
"The fact that Blakeman is only down by 9 (with) 6 weeks to go has got to make the Blakeman camp feel, you know, energized," Greenberg said.
WATCH: Two new polls offer very different snapshots of Hochul-Blakeman governor's race
In 2022, Siena had Hochul leading Republican Lee Zeldin by 17 points at a similar point in the campaign. Hochul ultimately won that election by about 6%.
7 News Political Analyst Bob McCarthy says the Siena numbers leave room for the race to change.
"He's got some room to grow," McCarthy said. "He's got some money to spend. He's got some things to say. There's a debate coming up probably at some point. We don't know when, but all of these things will figure in, and he's got to feel pretty good about where he is."
Siena finds Hochul with a 61%-27% lead in New York City. The candidates are nearly tied in the downstate suburbs, where Hochul leads 48%-46%, while Blakeman leads upstate 47%-44%.
"The city is where he has to really make some gains and probably in the burbs too," McCarthy said.
Quinnipiac shows a wider gap
Quinnipiac's poll tells a different story.
It has Hochul at 58% and Blakeman at 39%, with 3% either undecided or not choosing a candidate.
The poll finds Hochul leading among independents, 51%-45%, while Democrats back her 89%-6% and Republicans support Blakeman 90%-8%.
Quinnipiac also finds Hochul ahead among voters who say the cost of living is the most important issue in deciding their vote. Among that group, Hochul gets 66% support compared with 30% for Blakeman.
The cost of living is the single most important issue overall, named by 28% of likely voters. The economy follows at 21%, with health care at 11%.
Quinnipiac also finds Hochul ahead when voters are asked who would do a better job on several issues, including the economy, lowering the cost of living, taxes, immigration and AI data centers.
Affordability remains central to both campaigns
The two campaigns are putting affordability at the center of their messages.
Blakeman's campaign argues the Siena poll shows him closing the gap.
"All polls continue to show Kathy Hochul's downward spiral and me closing the gap as New Yorkers learn more about my plan to cut income taxes by historic margins and slash electric bills in half," Blakeman said in a statement.
Hochul's campaign is focusing heavily on Blakeman's relationship with President Donald Trump.
"Bruce Blakeman's Donald Trump obsession is a problem for this state and for his campaign, and New Yorkers can see it," Hochul campaign spokesperson Ryan Radulovacki said. "No one wants a Trump puppet in the governor's mansion who will cut their healthcare, raise their costs, and let ICE trample their rights – they trust Governor Hochul's record of investing in public safety, lowering crime, and putting money back in their pockets – and they know she'll fight for their families, not Trump."
Siena found that voters viewed Trump's endorsement of Blakeman negatively by a 51%-30% margin.
McCarthy says affordability will remain difficult for either campaign to avoid.
"Affordability is something that you can't get away from on so many levels in so many elections this year," McCarthy said.
Data centers, Lake Ontario and mail-in voting
The Siena poll also tested voters on several issues beyond the governor's race.
By a more than 2-to-1 margin, New Yorkers oppose allowing new large data centers to be built in their area after the state's one-year moratorium expires, according to Siena.
"By a 63% to 25% margin, voters said, 'not in my area of the state, thank you very much,'" Greenberg said.
The poll also found 74% oppose President Trump's effort to rename Lake Ontario "Lake America," while 19% support the change.
And on Trump's proposal to largely eliminate mail-in voting, 59% of likely voters disagree with the president, while 39% agree.
The Quinnipiac survey also found broader negative ratings for Trump among New York likely voters: 29% approve of his job performance, while 66% disapprove.
New Yorkers will head to the polls on November 3, with the early voting period going from October 24 to November 1.
