BUFFALO, N.Y. (WKBW) — With less than a week until Election Day, two new polls suggest New York Governor Kathy Hochul has a double-digit lead over Republican challenger Bruce Blakeman.
Siena Research Institute's final poll before Election Day has Hochul ahead by 14 percentage points, with 54% support compared to 40% for Blakeman.
Meanwhile a new Marist poll shows the Democratic incumbent leading with 11 points, 53% to 42%.
Republican strategist Carl Calabrese said the results reflect the reality Republicans are facing in a state that consistently favors Democrats.
"This state is habitually Democrat," Calabrese said.
Democratic strategist Jessica Schuster said she was not surprised, arguing Democratic voters are rallying behind the incumbent.
"The governor is showing what we've all known, and that is that Democratic voters are gonna come home. They're going to support a Democrat," Schuster said.
Blakeman faces uphill battle across New York
The Siena poll has Blakeman trailing Hochul across all of the state's regions, including New York City, its suburbs and what's described as "upstate".
Calabrese said that puts the Republican challenger in a difficult position, given the margins he would need to overcome the Democratic advantage.
"In order for Blakeman to have a chance of winning, he's got to get 33% in New York City. As of this poll, he's getting 23%," Calabrese said. "He's got to beat her in the New York City suburbs, then he's got to beat her by a really good margin in the rest of the state."
Blakeman has rejected the polls' findings, insisting the race is much closer than the surveys suggest.
At a campaign stop in the Southern Tier on Wednesday, Blakeman urged supporters to turn out.
"We gotta get everybody out to vote," Blakeman told the audience in Elmira. "This is a tipping point election."
In a statement, his campaign called the polls "nothing more than voter suppression tactics designed to discourage Republicans and manipulate the outcome of this election."
Schuster dismissed the suggestion that the race is essentially tied.
"Listen, polls, you can make a poll say whatever you want, right? The only perfect poll is an election, and I think Bruce Blakeman will be eating his words on Election Day," she said.
Calabrese acknowledged the challenge facing Blakeman, describing the race as a long shot but not an impossibility.
"If it's not out of reach, as each day goes by, it becomes more and more out of reach," Calabrese said. "I'm not going to say let's cancel the election, but right now, it's a long shot, not impossible, but certainly a long shot."
Trump's involvement raises questions for Republicans
Blakeman's decision to campaign multiple times with President Donald Trump has also drawn scrutiny, even from some in his own party.
The Siena poll found that just 37% of New Yorkers approve of Trump's job performance.
Conservative radio host Bob Lonsberry pointed to the president's involvement in the race in a post on X, writing that Blakeman had been closing the gap with Hochul month after month before Trump campaigned for him, and then that trend reversed afterward.
Calabrese said he expected Hochul's campaign to use Trump's unpopularity to its advantage.
"It is a tough year, and there's no question Trump and everything about Trump is toxic in New York State," Calabrese said. "And I knew that the Hochul campaign would do exactly what they've done and tie him at the hip to Donald Trump."
Blakeman defended the relationship during an appearance on "The Craig Carton Show" podcast this week, saying he would not distance himself from the president.
"I'm not going to change who I am," Blakeman said. "The fact of the matter is I've known Donald Trump for over 30 years. Donald Trump is a friend of mine. He supported me. I supported him."
Schuster argued the Trump connection could be hurting Blakeman, while Hochul has benefited from support from New York City Mayor Zohran Mamdani.
"I think the Trump endorsement hurt the Blakeman campaign in the same way that the Mamdani endorsement helped Kathy Hochul," Schuster said. "It is ironic that those are the two candidates that we're still talking about."
WATCH: New polls show Kathy Hochul has double-digit lead over Bruce Blakeman in NY governor's race
Early voting turnout surges
Blakeman campaigned in Western New York late Wednesday afternoon, ending the day with a rally in Lakewood, in Chautauqua County.
His campaign continues to argue the race is within reach and pointed to differences between the Siena and Marist polls in their findings with independent voters.
"The Siena poll shows Governor Kathy Hochul leading Blakeman among independent voters by 11 points, 51% to 40%. Yet the Marist poll, conducted just days apart, shows Blakeman winning independents by 10 points, 49% to 39% — a staggering 21-point discrepancy in the candidates’ margins," the Blakeman campaign said in a statement.
Meanwhile, early voting turnout has surged across New York, with nearly twice as many people having already cast ballots compared with the same point in the 2022 election cycle.
