Flood WATCH for All WNY Mon afternoon-Tuesday

Above Average Temps into Tue; Chilly Temps Follow

BUFFALO, N.Y. (WKBW) - Areas of Fog will thicken tonight, and may become locally dense, especially in the southern tier. A few spotty light showers Sunday night will be followed by a couple of periods of better organized showers for parts of a mild Monday, hastening the thaw. Ahead of a cold front, more widespread rain will cross the region later Monday night, bringing the possibility of some problems with ice jams. Tuesday will be windy and turning colder in the afternoon. Scattered showers may mix with a little snow in the afternoon, and turn to all snow by or during the early evening. As slightly Below Average temps return for midweek, a WNW flow may bring some lake effect snow to the hilly terrain on Tuesday night and Wednesday, with minor snow showers elsewhere. The seasonably cold temps hold into Thursday ahead of another moderating trend starting Friday into next weekend.

Over the next couple of weeks, there will be more Pacific than arctic air crossing our part of the country, with a couple of chilly "shots" but no deep freeze comparable to those earlier in the month. For those who like to plan further ahead, there are indications in extended range guidance that a return to a longer term harsher Wintry pattern will arrive as we get closer to around February 8-10th.

TONIGHT: Areas of fog with some patchy drizzle possible, and a few light showers. Fog may become locally dense over some of the snow pack, especially in the southern tier. Low: 35, milder near the PA line. Light wind.

MONDAY: Some fog AM. Showers pushing north AM. and then exiting off to the north in the afternoon. Milder. High:  50s s tier-45 metro area-40 near Lk Ontario. E/SE 10:15. A period of more widespread rain developing overnight. Breezy & Mild. Streams and creeks will be monitored for possible developing ice jams.

TUESDAY; Scattered rain showers mixing with some wet snow in the mid/late afternoon. Windy & turning Colder. Early high in the 40s with temps falling into the mid 30s in the afternoon. Scattered light snow showers overnight, windy and colder. Low: 24. 1-3" lake snow accumulation possible on higher terrain.

WEDNESDAY: Partly to Mostly Cloudy with a Cold Breeze. Scattered flurries and light snow showers with a minor additional accumulation on hilly terrain to the south as a NW flow brings in Lake Huron moisture and possibly some Lake Erie moisture. High: 25-28, but with a noticeable wind chill. Low in the teens overnight.

THURSDAY: More sun, less wind. Seasonably chilly. High: 27. Low in the teens overnight.

FRIDAY: Partly Sunny & milder. High: 38-40.

SATURDAY: Partly Sunny, Breezy & Milder. High: 51. Showers move in by or during the early evening.

SUNDAY: Scattered showers. Morning high: 51. Turning colder by evening with rain turning to snow in the evening. Chance of some accumulation, with temps back to the upper 20s/low 30s on Monday.

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