Siena College 26th Congressional District Poll Released

May 21, 2011 Updated May 21, 2011 at 8:51 PM EDT

By WKBW News

...
May 21, 2011 Updated May 21, 2011 at 8:51 PM EDT

Loudonville, NY.( release) Days before Election Day, Democrat Kathy Hochul holds a four point lead, 42 to 38 percent over Republican Jane Corwin according to a Siena (College) Research Institute poll of likely 26th CD voters released today. Viewed more favorably than Corwin or independent Jack Davis, Hochul has moved from trailing Corwin by five points, 36 to 31 percent, in Siena’s April 29 poll to having a lead three days before the election. Davis has dropped as the choice of likely voters from 23 to only 12 percent.

“With the eyes of the nation focusing on Western New York, Democrat Kathy Hochul has moved from trailing Republican Jane Corwin by five to leading by four points as independent Jack Davis has seen his support cut in half falling from twenty-three percent three weeks ago to only twelve percent today,” said Dr. Don Levy, Siena College pollster and Director of the Siena Research Institute.

If the election was today, who would you vote for?

Jane Corwin
Kathy Hochul
Jack Davis
Ian Murphy
Don’t Know/

No Opinion

May 21
Apr. 29
May 21
Apr. 29
May 21
Apr. 29
May 21
Apr. 29
May 21
Apr. 29

26th CD
38%
36%
42%
31%
12%
23%
1%
1%
7%
9%

Democrats
8%
12%
76%
62%
10%
20%
2%
2%
4%
5%

Republicans
66%
56%
12%
10%
13%
24%
1%
0%
8%
11%

Independents
36%
34%
44%
26%
16%
27%
1%
3%
2%
9%

Erie
38%
36%
50%
37%
9%
17%
0%
2%
3%
8%

Livingston/Monroe
40%
36%
36%
28%
12%
22%
2%
1%
9%
13%

Genesee/Niagara/

Orleans/Wyoming
36%
34%
37%
27%
17%
31%
3%
1%
8%
7%

Siena College Poll – May 21, 2011

“While Corwin picked up support among Republicans and held or picked up a couple of points among independents and in every region of the district, Hochul gained fourteen points with Democrats and eighteen points among independents. Hochul now has fifty percent support in Erie and has pulled even with Corwin in Genesee/Niagara/Orleans/Wyoming while cutting Corwin’s lead in Livingston/Monroe in half,” Levy said.

Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion of …

Favorable
Unfavorable
Don’t Know/

No Opinion

Jane Corwin
May 21
43%
49%
9%

Apr. 29
44%
31%
25%

Kathy Hochul
May 21
55%
38%
7%

Apr. 29
44%
31%
25%

Jack Davis
May 21
28%
64%
9%

Apr. 29
42%
41%
18%

Ian Murphy
May 21
7%
24%
70%

Apr. 29
5%
17%
77%

Barack Obama
May 21
48%
48%
4%

Apr. 29
39%
57%
4%

Siena College Poll – May 21, 2011

“Three weeks ago, Hochul and Corwin had identical favorability ratings among the district’s likely voters, 44 percent favorable and 31 percent unfavorable while Davis was viewed favorably by 42 percent and unfavorably by 41 percent. What a difference three weeks and an active campaign has made. Today, Hochul has a 55 to 38 percent favorable rating while Corwin has slipped to 43 percent favorable and 49 percent unfavorable. Davis now is seen favorably by only 28 percent while 64 percent of voters view him unfavorably,” Levy said.

Twenty-one percent of likely voters name Medicare as the single most important issue for them in their decision to select a candidate in this special election. Of those, 74 percent prefer Hochul. Twenty percent cite ‘Jobs’ as the most important issue in their decision. Of those voters, 34 percent prefer Hochul while 32 percent plan to vote for Corwin. Nineteen percent say the most important issue for them was the federal budget deficit. Of those voters, 60 percent prefer Corwin while only 18 percent are in Hochul’s camp. Medicare is the top issue for Hochul’s supporters while for Corwin supporters, the budget deficit is key.

“Sixty-six percent of voters say they are absolutely certain and will not change their mind. Seventy-three percent of Hochul’s and sixty-six percent of Corwin’s supporters are in that group. Another twenty-seven percent (21% of Hochul’s, 28% of Corwin’s) say they are fairly certain. Overall, ninety-four percent of both Corwin and Hochul voters now say they are either certain in their choice or unlikely to change their mind. Still, seven percent of currently committed voters say they may still change their mind and seven percent of all likely voters remain undecided,” Levy notes.

“Despite Hochul’s current lead, apparent momentum and strong favorability ratings, this race is not over yet. Ask the voters. When asked, regardless of whom they personally support, which candidate they think will win, forty-one percent say Corwin and forty-one percent say Hochul. Needless to say, turnout, turnout and turnout. Every vote will count on Tuesday in CD 26,” Levy said.