Analyst: Hochul vs. Collins Race Could Go Either Way

November 5, 2012 Updated Nov 5, 2012 at 12:31 AM EDT

By Rachel Elzufon

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November 5, 2012 Updated Nov 5, 2012 at 12:31 AM EDT

Buffalo, NY (WKBW) - In Western New York, the race between Kathy Hochul and Chris Collins in the 27th Congressional District appears to be in a dead heat, according to the latest poll and political analysts.

A new Siena College poll released Sunday shows Collins leading Hochul by just one point.

Analyst Bob Davis says this is the most important race for the House of Representatives in New York State, and is one of the most top ten watched in the United States.

With less than two days until voters cast their ballots, Hochul and Collins continue campaigning to get those last undecided voters.

Davis says it's all down to this strategy -- "Get their vote out, their base vote out. I'm sure they're both going to be very aggressive."

The latest numbers show Collins leading with 48-percent among likely voters. Hochul stands at 47-percent. Even with election day so close, five percent of the people polled remain undecided.

Hochul, the incumbent running in a heavily Republican and new 27th district, says "To still be at this point -- I tell you, back in the spring, people said we never had a chance."

Meanwhile, Collins adds "I knew this was going to be close and I feel like we have the energy, we don't dwell on polls at all."

In the district, polls show Mitt Romney beating President Barack Obama by 13 points. Some feel this should spell out a clear win for Collins.

Davis explains "It's the most Republican district in the state of New York and that's why you're seeing all the money being spent here."

A lot of money has rolled into Western New York for the race. Davis estimates two-to-three million dollars.

This seat is so important because Republicans are fighting to maintain control of the House of Representatives. "That seat is held by a Democrat," Davis tells Eyewitness News. "So if Collins wins, they pick-up a seat, which ought to help them continue to control the House."

Specifically in Erie County, the Siena Poll shows Collins leading Hochul at 52-to-46 percent.

Davis says "At the end of the day, if Chris Collins can carry those towns in Erie County, he should win this race." He explains that Erie County makes up 40-percent of the district, and Collins carried the target areas in his race for Erie County Executive.

However, there is a catch. Hochul is leading Collins 48-to-45 percent in the other seven counties.

The district will now be made up of Orleans, Genesee, Wyoming and Livingston counties. It will also include part of Erie, Niagara, Monroe and Ontario counties.

In many of those more conservative areas, most expected Collins to carry the lead, not Hochul.

Collins does have a big lead over Hochul in favorability ratings. 47 percent of voters see Hochul as favorable. 69 percent of those polled see Collins as more favorable. Analysts say this is because more and more people associate Hochul with running a negative campaign.

In a race that appears to be so down to the wire, expect to see more of the candidates as they campaign right up until voting day.